Fracto · Planning Tool

Portfolio Drawdown Simulator

How long might a portfolio support regular withdrawals? Explore it three ways — a constant-return projection, specific market-sequence scenarios, and a Monte Carlo simulation — to see why average return alone does not determine how long a portfolio lasts.

Step 1 · Your Portfolio

Starting portfolio

Cash reserve i

Expected annual return i

Annual volatility i

Step 2 · Your Withdrawals

Monthly withdrawal

Inflation

Withdrawal growth i

Time horizon

Cash strategy i

Withdrawal timing

Flexible spending i

calculating…

Deterministic projection. A constant return applied every month — useful as a baseline, but real markets never deliver the same return each year.

Longevity by constant return

Sequence-of-returns risk. A portfolio can earn a reasonable average return yet still fail earlier if large losses hit near the start of withdrawals. Early losses are especially damaging because withdrawals shrink the capital left to recover.

30-year survival probability

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Survival probability

Ending balance (percentiles)

Years until depletion (of paths that deplete)

Maximum withdrawal explorer

Model-estimated maximum monthly withdrawal for the chosen target.

Compare scenarios

Break-even. Sustaining the withdrawal indefinitely (ignoring inflation) requires roughly — average annual return (annual withdrawal ÷ starting portfolio). Even hitting that return is not risk-free: returns are volatile, withdrawals happen during down markets, inflation raises spending, and taxes and fees reduce returns.

Planning tool only. This calculator shows hypothetical illustrations based on assumptions you select. Investment returns, inflation and market conditions can differ materially from those assumptions. Results are not predictions, guarantees, or financial advice, and no result is “safe,” “unsafe,” or “recommended.” Balances are shown in nominal dollars unless the Monte Carlo “Real $” view is selected.