Skin in the game, capital allocation history, insider ownership >5%, low dilution
4
💰 Is the PRICE right?
Margin of safety ≥20–30%, DCF intrinsic value, compare to historical multiples
ALL 4 YES = Strong Buy │ 3 YES = Watch List │ <3 = Pass
Growth Indicators
Metric
What It Measures
Target Range
Rev. Growth
YoY & 3yr CAGR
>10% healthy; >20% hi
EPS Growth
Earnings/share trend
Accelerating = bullish
FCF Growth
Cash gen. trend
Must grow w/ earnings
TAM
Room to grow
Large + underserved
Mkt Share
Gaining or losing?
Growing in large TAM
Red Flags ⚠️
Declining revenue with rising stock price
Consistent negative free cash flow
High & rising debt with slowing growth
Excessive stock dilution (>3% annually)
CEO / insiders selling large blocks
Goodwill >40% of total assets (acq-heavy)
Earnings growth driven only by buybacks
Auditor changes or financial restatements
Key Formulas
P/EPrice ÷ EPS
PEGP/E ÷ EPS Growth %
EVMktCap + Debt − Cash
ROICNOPAT ÷ Invested Cap
FCFOpCF − CapEx
DCF ValueΣ FCF/(1+r)^n + TV
Margin of Safety(IV − Price) ÷ IV
Moat Types Checklist
①Brand Power — pricing power, top-of-mind recall
②Network Effects — value grows with each user
③Switching Costs — painful to leave (data lock-in)
④Cost Advantage — scale, process, or location edge
⑤IP / Patents — legal barriers to competition
Quick Signal Guide
Deep ValueP/E <12, P/B <1, D/Y >3%
GARPPEG <1.5, ROE >15%
Quality GrowthROIC >15%, Rev >20% YoY
Dividend CompounderD/Y >2%, Payout <60%
TurnaroundImproving margins, FCF+
Where to Find Data
SEC Filings — 10-K, 10-Q, proxy (DEF 14A)
Earnings Calls — transcripts + Q&A tone
Screeners — Finviz, Koyfin, TradingView
Benchmarking — peer comparison via sector
Insider Txns — OpenInsider, SEC Form 4
Pre-Buy Checklist
Read last 2 annual reportsCheck 10-K risk factorsReview earnings call transcriptsCompare vs 2+ competitorsRun a simple DCFKnow your exit thesisPosition size <5% unless high conviction